At the time of writing, Iran stands alone in the battlefield. It does have diplomatic support from Muslim countries, but once the battlefield is heated, what is needed is arms and the strength of the arm. There appears to be no likelihood that this strength will become available in the near future. The warriors of social media are active. If their support had any real impact, Gaza would not have turned into a wasteland like this.

The intentions of America and its allies are clear: the consolidation of Israel and the elimination of resistance. The question is: what is the resolve of the Muslims who live in this region? Is it the defense of national states at an individual level, or a collective strategy of action? All signs suggest that the Arabs have chosen to safeguard their individual interests. The Arab League exists, but in the Gaza conflict it has failed to make its presence felt. It has shown no passion even for Iran. There appears to be no likelihood that the Arabs will extend practical support to Iran. If this analysis is correct, then it will also not be possible for Pakistan to take any practical step to aid Iran. Whatever our claims may be, Pakistan is a national state, and its interests are confined within the geographical borders that were drawn by the new political arrangement of 1947. For the oppressed in Gaza, all we could do was to offer some balm for their wounds.

This is not a heartening scenario, but these are the facts before our eyes. In Gaza, the Palestinians had no path other than death. When Israel targeted Hamas and Hezbollah, no one came to their aid. This success encouraged it toward further aggression, and now it has advanced on Iran. America remained alongside it and still does. Israel is, in fact, the vanguard of the United States in the Middle East. The absence of resistance gave them the courage to proclaim the transformation of all Palestinian territory into Israel, without any share or dispute. Two centuries or so have passed without any major victory written in the fate of Muslims by the decree of destiny. The success of “Bunyanun Marṣuṣ” was the success of Pakistan, achieved in its capacity as a national state. If China aided in that instance, it was not because Pakistan represented the Muslim ummah. It was the mutual interests of two national states that made them allies. If anyone else offered any assistance, it too was not fi sabilillah. There is no doubt that our soldiers fought with religious fervor and made their spirit of martyrdom their strength. But the world had a different perspective. In that battle, too, Iran and Saudi Arabia acted only as mediators. As national states, their own interests were dearer to them.

Under these circumstances, there is no possibility of any immediate change. No Muslim state will take any step while ignoring its ‘national’ interests. What is practically possible is that these states, considering their respective interests, adopt a strategy that protects Iran from Israeli ambitions. So far, it is Iran that has suffered the most damage. If Israel has incurred any damage, America is present to compensate for it. One loss Iran has suffered is irreplaceable—the martyrdom of its men of action. As for material loss, that is compensable, though it will require time. For this, diplomatic progress is necessary.

I pointed out in my previous column as well that an emergency meeting of the OIC is imperative. Ideally, this meeting should announce support for Iran and declare that an attack on any member of the OIC will be considered an attack on the entire Muslim world. Whether or not to respond militarily would be the next stage, but at least a clear position would be visible. At present, I see no likelihood of this happening. The reason is again national state interests. The fear is that, since America stands behind Israel, such a declaration of war would implicitly be against the United States—and we cannot bear the weight of such hostility. In plain words, our dream that the Muslim ummah will prove to be a political unity has, for now, no interpretation.

Against this backdrop, will America and Israel—God forbid—succeed in their ambitions? This is a difficult question, but its answer is not necessarily in the affirmative. America, by the law of nature, is on a path of decline. The arrival of President Trump accelerated this process. Yet this building will take time to collapse. America’s current advantage is that there is no major obstacle in the path of its ambitions regarding the Middle East. Russia is no longer in a position to intervene here. It could save Bashar al-Assad as an individual—and it did. The war in Ukraine has left it incapable of providing Iran with any military assistance. China’s policy is to avoid entanglement in any conflict. It can assist in Iran’s economic recovery, but not in military conflict. Pakistan is a different matter altogether, and Iran should not draw comparisons. Russia and China have no enmity with Israel. Even so, if China and Russia wish, they can exert diplomatic pressure that could delay American advancement. If they receive support from the OIC as well, that could ease the situation somewhat.

Will Russia and China do this? I believe that while avoiding direct conflict, they might. At present, Europe is not pleased with America. It is possible that it will not support America in the Middle East this time with the same fervor. Moreover, the people of Europe no longer hold favorable views of Israel. Democratic governments cannot ignore public sentiment beyond a certain limit. The Arabs too must realize what challenges a powerful Israel might pose to them tomorrow. Therefore, America will not achieve its objective so easily.

Analysis is not driven by wishful thinking. It is not the task of the optimists. At times, the ground realities clash with our desires—but we cannot ignore them. Wishful thinking does not change facts. We must formulate our strategies while acknowledging these facts. Our wish is indeed that Israel suffers a humiliating defeat—but this will not be accomplished merely by wishing it or hurling curses at Israel on social media. Nor will it happen by reviling Muslim rulers. The battlefield is set, and Iran must now face it. What we must consider is how we can assist Iran in this. Turning hopes into headlines will not bring down Israeli planes. Is it a trivial matter that despite war with Iran, the bombing of Palestinians continues? This is an expression of their confidence that resistance has died. We must grasp the nature of this situation. Those who glamorize the flowing blood of Palestinians and now Iranians must reflect seriously. The true friend of Palestinians and Iranians is the one who desires their life and progress.